R. F. D. News & Views, July 9, 2014

by Tim Alexander

 

UCorn, Soybean Reports Contain Surprises

SPRINGFIELD – The June 30 USDA acreage and grain stocks reports for corn and soybeans contained some surprises. While planted acreage for corn remained unchanged from 2013 at 12 million acres and harvested grain, at 11.8 million acres, was also unchanged, corn stocks (in all positions) was up 45 percent from June 1, 2013, at 567 million bushels. The March-May report estimated disappearance is 651 million bushels, up 64 percent from last year.

Soybean stocks in all positions on June 1, 2014 was pegged at 56.6 million bushels, up five percent from the same day last year. The March-May indicated soybean disappearance is 95.9 million bushels, up 13 percent from 2013, according the the report. Illinois’ planted area for soybeans, at 10.1 million acres, is up seven percent from last year and ties the highest planted acreage in the state set in 2006. Harvested area for soybeans is estimated at 10.05 million acres, up seven percent.

In addition, Illinois hay acreage is expected to decline by two percent from 2013, according to USDA.

 

Good: USDA Blundered in Estimates

URBANA – The USDA erred in their previous estimates of both corn and soybean grain stocks and total soybean acreage, leading to surprises in their June 30-issued U.S. grain stocks and acreage reports. This is according to Darrel Good from the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (ACES).

“June 1 stocks of corn were estimated at 3.854 billion bushels, about 132 million bushels more than the average trade guess. The larger than expected estimate implies that feed and residual use of corn during the third quarter of the 2013-14 marketing year was about 40 million bushels less than during the same period last year. The disappointing level of use suggests that the USDA projection of feed and residual use of 5.3 billion bushels for the year may be too high,” Good opined in a U of I farmdocDAILY blog he issued immediately following the issuance of the report.

That projection will be updated in the July 11 WASDE report, Good noted. He also pointed out that the recent slowdown in the pace of corn export shipments could translate to a slightly smaller total for the year than the 1.9 billion bushels the USDA is forecasting. In addition, the sharp decline in corn prices that followed the June 30 USDA reports put December corn futures about 35 cents below the spring crop insurance price. Soybean prices also declined, with November futures moving within about 20 cents of the spring crop insurance rate.

Which crop now appears to have more price downside potential? Check out the rest of Good’s report at www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/marketing/weekly/html/063014.html for his answer.

 

Breeder: PEDv Hurting Illinois Swine Exports

TOLONO – Illinois’ live swine export market is struggling to achieve profitability despite record prices because the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is strongly affecting live exports. But better times could be ahead as scientists work to develop effective vaccinations to combat the disease, which hits piglets ten days old and under with an alarming mortality rate. This is according to George Bruns, a veteran purebred swine breeder who will be retiring from the Illinois Pork Producers Association (IPPA) board of directors later this year.

“PEDv has definitely hurt the live export market for U.S. pigs,” said Bruns, interviewed from his home in Champaign County. “If PEDv hits you it will wipe you out, especially in the farrowing house. Nothing (scientists) have come up with yet can stop it.”

U.S. exports of live animals were “very good” before PEDv began its pervasive march through swine breeding facilities a year or so ago. In Illinois facilities, “(PEDv) has hit us pretty bad,” said Bruns. “I can’t give you any figures on it, but it’s bad. Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina and Illinois are all hit hard. I can tell you that a health study was done at 100 (rural-based) gas stations in Iowa recently, in which 85 percent of the stations tested positive for having the presence of the PEDv. You can pick it up anywhere and transmit it to animals.”

However, “If we can get the PEDv thing resolved, I know that China will be a big customer for U.S. purebred livestock. And there are other countries as well– Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand– that will be good customers,” Bruns continued. “(PEDv) is concerning to me as a breeder. Our business is very slow right now because of it. If we can see where it is slowing down and being contained here (in the U.S.), I think the export market can be robust again. But it may take another year for that to happen.”

 

CSP Expiring? Renew Now

CHAMPAIGN – Farmers and rural dwellers with expiring 2010 contracts from the Natural Resources Service’s (NRCS) Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP) have until September 12 to renew and add conservation activities to support their natural resource improvements, the state NRCS office announced last week. Over 500 CSP contracts affecting nearly 400,000 acres in Illinois are reaching the end of their initial five-year contract period, according to Ivan Dozier, NRCS state conservationist for Illinois.

“We can renew those contracts for an additional five years when participants agree to take on additional conservation activities. Maybe it’s time to try cover crops or explore some other ideas you’ve considered,” Dozier said in an Illinois NRCS news release. “Producers that have 2010 CSP contracts will be contacted directly by the local NRCS field office to notify them of the opportunity to renew their contract.”

Nearly one million acres of agriculture and non-industrial private forestland have been enrolled in CSP since 2010, allowing participants to make positive changes in soil, water and air quality, energy and wildlife habitat. “There’s always the potential to address a concern on the farm or try something new,” Dozier added. “And CSP offers technical guidance and a financial incentive to continually improve your resource base and invest in your land.”

 

Illinois Farm Fact:

The price received for corn in Illinois had fallen from $6.96 per bushel on June 1, 2013 to $4.60/bu. on June 1, 2014. The price received for soybeans had declined from $15.50/bu. to $14.10/bu. during the same period.Soybean Board)

 

(Tim Alexander is a freelance reporter who writes agriculture, news and feature articles for the News Bulletin, Farm World and many other publications.)