(From left) Former state representatives Tom Cross and James Nowlan and former Illinois Department of Revenue Director J. Thomas Johnson discuss the state financial problems at Aurora University on Nov. 19. (Photo by Jack McCarthy)

A panel of former state officials says a combination of higher taxes, budget cuts and policy changes will likely be needed to put Illinois back on a path towards solvency.

But former state representatives Tom Cross and James Nowlan and former Illinois Department of Revenue Director J. Thomas Johnson agree that resolving the current budget impasse and ongoing political deadlock may still be months or even a year away.

“I hope I’m wrong (but) I think this is something that is not solved until after the election of 2016,” said Cross, the former House Republican leader, during a discussion last week at Aurora University. “I’m not advocating that. I’m not arguing for that. But you have two individuals who I don’t think are going to blink — Speaker (Michael) Madigan and the governor (Bruce Rauner). I don’t see these guys coming together.”

The three participated in a panel discussion last Thursday as Aurora University debuted its Town Square Series, a planned series of policy discussions.

Nowlan and Johnson, self-described moderate Republicans, were more optimistic about at least a resolution to the current budget deadlock between Republican Rauner and a Democratic-dominated Illinois General Assembly.

But Johnson said the only way to bridge seemingly intractable positions is through compromise.

“Right now no one wants to lose anything, they want to win everything,” Nowlan said. “They’re not serving the people of Illinois unless they could decide what they need to win and what they are willing to lose … That’s what government is all about.”

But Cross suggested that a broader resolution might come down to voters siding with either Rauner or Democrats when they select members of the Illinois House and Senate in the November 2016 elections.

“But (a crisis) could happen sooner,” said Cross, who served in the General Assembly from 2002-13 and narrowly lost a 2014 race for Illinois Treasurer. “I’m very afraid that it might take a very catastrophic event in the state for it to happen before that.”

Nowlan said the broad outlines of a resolution are already apparent.

“I think those of us who observe state politics closely know how this is going to turn out at some point,” he said. “And that’s going to be some change in worker’s compensation, regulations and an increase in revenues to balance the budget.”

The current crisis is fueled by a pension debt estimated at $110 billion and lack of adequate revenue, partly caused by expiration of a temporary state income tax increase earlier this year that left the state with at least a $4 billion revenue shortfall for the fiscal year which began in July 2014.

Many functions of state government and spending are now operating under court orders. In the meantime, the state’s credit ratings are among the worst in the nation.

Rauner and four legislative leaders, two from each party, are scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 in Springfield.

Nowlan and Johnson also discussed potential short and longer-term solutions as outlined in “Fixing Illinois, Politics and Policy in the Prairie State,” a book they co-authored last year.

The book was published prior to an Illinois Supreme Court decision that unanimously rejected a pension reform law passed by the General Assembly that would have reduced future obligations and changed the terms of some current pensions. The court ruled that those pensions cannot be altered according to the Illinois Constitution.

It also came before the current budget impasse, highlighted by an ongoing clash between Rauner and Madigan.

Still, the blueprint by Nowlan and Johnson offer nearly 100 recommendations, including: overhauling the state pension systems that includes more reasonable benefits and raising of the retirement age; a broader tax base to cover services while reducing other rates; an updated and coherent information technology system for state agencies; and a change in culture to root out the state’s entrenched culture of corruption.

“We have our problems, but we also have great strengths,” said Nowlan, citing road, rail and air transportation networks, strong educational facilities and ample water.

“We should be the envy of most states,” he added. “We have problems but we have the potential.”

“Fixing Illinois” is available for $19 through the University of Illinois Press (www.press.uillinois.edu) or as hard copy or digital book through amazon.com and barnesandnoble.com. Prices vary on online services.

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— Former Illinois officials say budget battle may last through 2016 —

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