Metro-East population losses worry planners

By Bob Piper For Chronicle Media
The East-East Gateway Council of Governments population change map, above, shows that most of the population gain (green dots) in the St. Louis 8-county region from 2000 to 2010 was in the outer counties of the region, with a large increase also seen in the central core. Most of the population losses (blue dots) occurred in the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County, and St. Clair County. All counties except for St. Louis County and the city of St. Louis had net population gain over the last decade.

The East-East Gateway Council of Governments population change map, above, shows that most of the population gain (green dots) in the St. Louis 8-county region from 2000 to 2010 was in the outer counties of the region, with a large increase also seen in the central core. Most of the population losses (blue dots) occurred in the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County, and St. Clair County. All counties except for St. Louis County and the city of St. Louis had net population gain over the last decade.

Most Metro-East counties have experienced population losses over the first half of this decade, according to a new study by the St. Louis region’s top level planning organization.

The East-West Gateway Council of Government (EWG) is set to formally release its “Where We Sand seventh edition: The Strategic Assessment of the St. Louis Region,” Oct. 14, in a forum at the St. Louis Central Public Library, co-sponsored by the activist group FOCUS-St. Louis and  the University of Missouri St. Louis School for Public Policy and Administration.

The EWG is the federally recognized planning agency for the St. Louis region, encompassing the city of St. Louis and seven surrounding counties.

The council has issued the assessment periodically since 1992 in an attempt to compare Greater St. Louis to other metro areas. Like past reports, the new seventh edition, points to problems with slow population growth, loss of traditional employment opportunities, and an aging population. The new report also suggests contributing factors. The scope of latest edition was also expanded to address  socio-economic issues.

Overall, the population of the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) ranked 19th in population among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas in 2014. (The St. Louis SMSA , defined by the federal Office of Management and Budget, encompasses the 15 counties surrounding St. Louis.)

St. Louis had previously ranked 18th,  however, region has been surpassed in population over the first half of this decade by the fast-growing Tampa-St. Petersburg area.

The population of the St. Louis region grew just 0.7 percent from 2010-13, ranking the area 44th among major metropolitan areas. (The total U.S. population grew 3.3 percent over the same period.)

And the overwhelming majority of that growth was on the Missouri side of the region.

In Illinois, Bond, Calhoun, Clinton. Jersey, Macoupin, Madison and St. Clair counties all sustained population losses from 2010 to 2013 (see chart). Only Monroe County was a bright spot with a 2.3 percent population increase.

As in most of the rest of the nation, population increases in the St. Louis region generally come as the result of “natural change,” with the number of births in the region generally exceeds the number of deaths, the report notes.

However, the St. Louis region has one of the lowest natural growth rates in the nation, ranking 42nd among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas That has increasingly prompted concern that the region could eventually have an inadequate number of working-age adults and a disproportionately  large number of older adults, requiring health and social services, according to the report.

In problem appears greatest in areas of Metro-East, the report suggests. Birth rates exceed death rates by substantial margins in St. Clair, Madison, Monroe and Clinton counties. However, in Bond, Calhoun. Jersey, and Macoupin counties, death rates have topped birth rates.

While it is not widely known, virtually all major metropolitan areas in America sustain substantial population outflow each year as a result of “domestic migration” – people moving out to relocate in another area. The St. Louis region is no exception ranking 45th in net migration nationwide, with 38,313 moving out. The city of St. Louis has seen the region’s greatest domestic out-migration during his decade, with 14,032 leaving.

However, out-migration is also a notable trend in six of the St. Louis SMS’s seven Metro-East counties – with some 9,497 St. Clair County residents opting to move out over the course of this decade, and Madison County losing 5,265. Bond, Calhoun. Jersey, and Macoupin lost a total of around 2,500 residents to domestic out-migration. Again, Madison County proved an exception with 423 new residents moving in.

Most of the nation’s large metropolitan areas – especially coastal cities such as New York, Los Angles and Dallas – have come to rely on immigration from outside the U.S. to offset the effects of out-migration and keep up population total, the report notes.

However, inland and smaller cities generally see less immigration than coastal towns. And Greater St. Louis sees less than its peer cities in the Midwest, according to the EWG report.

The region ranks 46 in net international migration, attracting 18,079 over the first half of this decade.  However, the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County accounted for 13,752 of them.

St. Clair County attracted 1,102 immigrant over the past five years, with Madison County attracting 643. The rest of the Metro-East attracted a total of only about 200 new residents from outside the U.S. The full EWG report can be accessed online at www.ewgateway.org/wws.

 

 

 

 

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