R.F.D. NEWS & VIEWS

By Tim Alexander for Chronicle Media
Darrel Good, speaking during the 2015 Farm Economics Summit in Peoria, will again be among presenters for the 2016 University of Illinois-hosted summit. Several summits have been scheduled across Illinois in December. (photo by Tim Alexander)

Darrel Good, speaking during the 2015 Farm Economics Summit in Peoria, will again be among presenters for the 2016 University of Illinois-hosted summit. Several summits have been scheduled across Illinois in December. (photo by Tim Alexander)

The price farmers are paid for corn is down from last year’s already depressed value. What are the chances of corn prices making a recovery soon? We also have news of how one pork operation helped two Illinois counties secure funding for much-needed road repairs. Plus: it’s time again for the U of I Farm Economic Summit — we have the dates and locations. Finally, FSA wants producers to step up during county committee elections beginning this week. Read on for more:

How corn prices might rebound

URBANA — The Oct. 31 USDA Illinois Agricultural Prices report shows that corn, at $3.27 per bushel, was down 42 cents from the $3.69 it fetched one year ago across the U.S., and, at $3.17/bu. in Illinois, a full 52 cents from last year. Most growers are wondering what it would take for prices to recover in the foreseeable future. University of Illinois farm economist Darrel Good addressed that topic in an essay posted on the university’s farmdocDAILY website issued the same day as the release of the USDA report.

“Some combination of a reduction in corn supplies and increased consumption will be required in order for prices to move above $4.00 per bushel for an extended time,” Good said. “As always, there are mixed expectations about the potential change in the forecast this year, with the average expectation leaning towards a small reduction from the October yield forecast of 173.4 bushels. Any change in the 2016 production forecast this month is not expected to be large enough to alter prices very much.”

The most likely scenario that would result in a price recovery would be a reduction in supply spurred by reduced corn acreage in the U.S. in 2017, Good believes. “Corn prices would be expected to get a boost if acreage is reduced enough to result in smaller stocks at the end of the 2017-18 marketing year,” he noted. “Higher corn prices might also be generated by stronger demand that would result in some combination of increased consumption and the willingness of end users to pay more for corn. A larger increase might be generated by a continued expansion in gasoline consumption, larger ethanol exports, and a decline in the use of sorghum as a feedstock.” Good added that it appears unlikely that higher corn prices will be generated by a large reduction in the estimated size of the 2016 U.S. crop or higher demand for corn. “That leaves a smaller than expected South American crop or or a much smaller U.S. crop in 2017 as the potential sources of higher prices,” Good wrote in his essay, “Assessing the Potential for Higher Corn Prices.”

Illinois Farm Fact:

The livestock industry contributes more than $36 million to the Cumberland County economy, while providing 121 jobs. (2015 Illinois Agriculture Economic Contribution Study)

Pork plant prompts road repair funds

SPRINGFIELD — The presence of a livestock facility — and the jobs it provides — spurred the awarding of two IDOT grant programs totaling over $2 million for much-needed rural road repairs in Cumberland and Shelby counties in late October. An Economic Development Program grant was approved for the project based, in large part, to the presence of a livestock production facility in the area, according to Cumberland County engineer Ben Bland.

“Using the guidelines of the EDP, the county must demonstrate long-term results with the creation and retention of jobs,” said Bland, in a news release issued by the Illinois Pork Producers Association. “For this road project, Cumberland County partnered with Walk Stock Farm, and, as the designated partner, Walk Stock Farm must report their annual employment numbers to the state for the next five years for the county to remain in compliance with the grant program.”

Cumberland County board president Floyd Holkenbrink said agriculture is a strong economic driver in Cumberland County. “Without the growth and investment of livestock in our area, this road project would have placed a financial burden on our county and pulled funds away from other necessary projects. Now, thanks to the livestock industry, our residents have the ability to travel on a newly constructed road,” Holkenbrink said.

2016 Farm Econ Summit announced

URBANA — Dates and locations for the 2016 Farm Economic Summit, sponsored by the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (ACES), have been announced. Registration is now open for summits scheduled in Champaign (Dec. 12), DeKalb (Dec. 13), Peoria (Dec.14), Springfield (Dec.15) and Mount Vernon (Dec.16), Darrel Good announced last week.

“The workshop is specifically designed for farm operators, lenders, landowners, and other agribusiness professionals,” Good said. The ACES staff, including Good, Jon Coppess, Todd Gleason, Scott Irwin, Todd Kuethe, Dale Lattz, Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey, will cover topics ranging from commodity price outlooks to farmland leases and long-term weather and yield trends for corn and soybeans.

More information can be found at the conference website at www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/IFES/2016, or contact Nancy Simpson at (217) 244-9687.

Producers receiving FSA ballots

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Farm Service Agency (FSA) wants producers in Illinois and elsewhere to be on the lookout for ballots in their mailboxes for the 2016 FSA County Committee elections beginning this week. Producers must return the ballots to their local FSA offices by Dec. 5 to ensure their vote is counted, said FSA administrator Val Dolcini.

“Producers elected to FSA county committees play a vital role in local agricultural decisions. Their contributions are essential to the daily operation of nearly 2,200 offices around the country. It is a valued partnership that helps us better understand the needs of the farmers and ranchers we serve,” said Dolcini.

County committee members help FSA make important decisions on its commodity support programs, conservation programs, indemnity and disaster programs, and emergency programs and eligibility. Newly elected members take office on Jan. 1. For more info, visit www.fas.usda.gov/elections. (FSA news release)

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