Cubs have brightest outlook for 2016

George Castle
John Avello, director of racing and sports at Wynn-Las Vegas has cut the proposition for a Cubs World Series victory the next two seasons to 2½ to 1.

John Avello, director of racing and sports at Wynn-Las Vegas has cut the proposition for a Cubs World Series victory the next two seasons to 2½ to 1.

Unless recent NHL playoff history is shattered or the Bears strike gold in both the draft and free agency, Chicago’s sports hopes for 2016 appeared centered on the mega-hyped Cubs’ expected success.

The Blackhawks are the most experienced winner in pro hockey, yet are thinner and younger due to salary cap-forced personnel changes. The Bulls ended 2015 a seemingly fractious team on and off the court. And while apparently beefing up their lineup with slugging third baseman Todd Frazier, the White Sox will require half a lineup’s worth of turnarounds, more acquisitions and good fortune to even stay within sniffing distance of the world-champion Kansas City Royals.

Cubs

The city’s — and much of the Midwest’s, for that matter — 1-A favorite in the Cubs will be the greatest managerial challenge for the super-cool Joe Maddon. Instead of projected developing going into his job in 2015, Maddon now will have to balance the heavy expectations of the surprise 97-game-winning team with the burden of history as 1908 continues to recede further past the century mark.

The telegenic Cubs, beefed up by the on-paper mother lode of free agents in Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey, are now Las Vegas’ darlings. Cubs fans have always put their money on their heroes even in the worst of seasons looming. Now the bettors are trying beat the clock as the odds on winning a World Series drop toward break-even.

Most optimistic of the ‘Vegas numbers-crunchers was John Avello, director of racing and sports at Wynn-Las Vegas. A decades-long veteran of sports books, Avello gained some notoriety for proclaiming in 1993 the Cubs were a million-to-one shot to have avoided a World Series between 1945 and 1992. That figuring inspired the title and part of the premise of the 2000 book The Million To One Team, about Cubs ownership and management.

More recently, Avello was so impressed by Maddon’s hiring and the coming wave of talent led by Kris Bryant, a Las Vegas native, that he posted a proposition bet going into 2015: the Cubs would be 7½ to 1 to win the World Series in the next three seasons.

Those proposition odds have dramatically dropped after the Cubs’ breakthrough season and the free-agent frenzy of December. The Cubs were the favorite at 7-1 to win it all in 2016, but Avello has cut the proposition for a World Series victory the next two seasons to 2½-1.

“The Cubs certainly have strengthened themselves,” Avello said.  “You can build up (the team) all you want, you still have to win. They’re going to win a lot of games. I liked what they’ve done.”

In Avello’s mind, the creative Maddon always gives his team an edge.

“The Rays were dropped 10 points because Joe Maddon left,” he said. “That goes to show you what he’s worth.”

Maddon also became the first Cubs manager or executive to aggressively tackle the tough, still daytime-oriented home schedule at Wrigley Field. He eliminated batting practice, enabling the players to get more rest, in the second half of the season. It was a positive cause-and-effect: the Cubs went 50-20 from late July through their four-game victory over the archrival St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series.

The number of night games, still less than half of the home schedule, has been legislated by the Chicago City Council since 1988. The constant shifting from a day schedule at home (all days prior to ’88) to nights on the road could have subjected the players to “shift work disorder,” a chaotic jumbling of their body clocks. The result may have promoted slumps due to tired bodies and minds later in the season, according to medical experts.

White Sox

The White Sox don’t have the same worries, playing the majority of their games at night. But they fell victim to over-optimistic expectations of contention in 2015, falling under .500 for the third straight season. The South Siders wasted a largely competitive pitching staff with one of the majors’ most incompetent offenses. GM Rick Hahn rectified at least some of the issues with trades for 35-homer third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds and infielder Brett Lawrie from the Athletics. However, the Sox sacrificed speed in the deal via second baseman Micah Johnson, and now do not have a legit base stealer in the lineup.

Frazier, though, is the real deal. He won’t likely suffer the same fate as National League emigres Adam Dunn, Adam La Roche and Jeff Samardzija, their production cratering moving to the Sox.

“There’s so much interleague play and with players being traded and free agents being signed, most players experience both leagues anyway,” said a knowledgeable big-league source familiar with Frazier. “I don’t see Todd having any issues. La Roche and Dunn were a little bit more high-strikeout guys and maybe make the adjustment to the cold weather early, just not getting in their groove, may have affected them.

“But I don’t think you’ll see that with Todd. I feel Todd will put up the same numbers he’s always put up.”

Bears

Meanwhile, the Bears — the No. 1 sports attraction in the region — can’t do anything but put up better numbers in 2016. The past two seasons could hardly be any worse. The erstwhile Monsters of the Midway were marginally better in 2015, thanks to both better locker room and organizational cohesion from new head coach John Fox, offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

But, after injuries to key receivers were factored in, the Bears were short in talent at too many positions. However, the parity-lusting NFL has paved the way for big season-to-season improvement. If GM Ryan Pace hits on the majority of nine draft picks and expected free agents amid salary-cap space, the Bears could move into .500 territory — always the cusp of a wild-card playoff berth.

The area got overheated with dreams of the postseason when the Bears upset the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving Night. That represented the peak of a small midseason uptick. But (lack of) talent sought its own level.  Still, the downbeat ending was perceived as less painful than the chaotic end of the two-year Mark Trestman coaching era.

Blackhawks

The United Center’s two main occupants represented opposite tracks as winter officially arrived.

The Blackhawks remained a feared, disciplined team coming off its third Stanley Cup championship in six seasons. And Patrick Kane, shaking off legal troubles at the season’s start, moved into his career prime as the NHL’s leading scorer and strong MVP candidate.

Yet the sheer dominance of past seasons was not present as midseason approached. In its own way, the NHL’s regular season and four rounds of seven-game playoffs are more grinding than baseball’s marathon. That’s why no team has repeated as champs since the 1997 and 1998 Red Wings.

Several of the younger Hawks will need to emerge as impact players to supplement the Kane-Jonathan Toews-Duncan Keith-Brent Seabrook-Corey Crawford-Marian Hossa-Niklas Hjalmarrson core for a long playoff run.  Any of the four playoff rounds are a tripwire due to an opponent’s hot goalie, a fluke bounce of the puck and the sheer exhaustion and pain that sets in by that juncture.

Secretly, the NHL would prefer a Hawks repeat because of TV ratings and their national appeal. The dregs of the league a decade ago, the Hawks are basically the NHL’s flagship team.

Bulls

The Bulls would be likewise in the NBA. But Michael Jordan’s presence is receding nearly two decades in the past, with no likely seventh championship in franchise history in sight.

Derrick Rose is diminished, while Joakim Noah is hurting. Jimmy Butler is both playing decently and editorializing about new coach Fred Hoiberg’s decibel level. The Bulls seem distracted, and the end result likely will be a re-tooling of the roster after another underperforming season. The championship window opened by Rose’s arrival and pre-injury MVP level play apparently has closed. Yet the franchise is cushioned by an ever-adoring fan base, generated by Jordan, that packs the UC nightly. Financially, the Bulls will have financial soft landings in any waffling season.

 

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