Bill Foster 

It’s been said that it’s never a good idea to not run through the tape in a political race, because, as it’s also often been said, the only truly reliable poll is the one on Election Day.  

However, it’s also said that the exception proves the rule. This election cycle that exception looks a lot like the 11th Congressional race between incumbent Bill Foster and challenger Jerry Evans. 

In the wake of newly released second-quarter Federal Election Commission filings, Foster is a prohibitive favorite by every measurement. He has outraised Evans nearly 5-to-1, outspent Evans more than 4-to-1, and, as of July 1, has 15 times the money on hand as Evans.  

The FiveThirtyEight website had Foster at plus 7 in polls, 41 percent to 34 percent, while The Hill’s campaign tracker is far more stark, giving Foster 96 percent odds of winning. The Cook Political Report has the 11th as “solidly Democratic.”  

Unlike the 17th Congressional District race, which is seen as at least somewhat competitive (“leans Democratic”), the 11th Congressional District is not on any expert’s radar and is seen by seasoned political observers to be a safe Democratic seat. Unlike 17th District challenger Joe McGraw, Evans is not named by any Republican fundraising group as a funding priority to support a winnable seat. 

Another thing that’s often said is that money alone doesn’t guarantee victory. As recently as this March’s primary, state Sen. Natalie Toro, who’d been appointed to her seat less than a year earlier, lost her race to a determined opponent, despite the Democratic establishment spending more than $2 million supporting her with a blizzard of mailings and a small army of ground workers.  

Toro’s opponent, Graciela Guzman won with nearly 50 percent of the vote in a four-candidate race despite Toro outspending her 4-to-1. 

And less than two years ago, novice 17th District Congressional candidate Eric Sorensen defeated Republican Esther Joy King despite King having raised and spent just over $5 million, fully $2 million more than Sorensen. 

In any event, Foster, 68, is no novice, and can be expected to run through the tape, if for no other

Jerry Evans

reason than that he knows what it is to lose. While he has a history of winning by 10 point-plus margins, he lost his seat in the old 14th District in the red wave of 2010, following his vote for the Affordable Care Act.  

Foster responded by selling his Batavia home, moving to Naperville, and returning to Congress in 2012, with a resounding 16 percentage point win over veteran GOP Congresswoman Judy Biggert in the re-drawn 11th Congressional District. 

He hasn’t lost since. 

Evans has been busy working the grassroots in the 11th District, trying to raise money and morale among voters. Congressman Darin LaHood was present to offer his support at a fundraiser July 13.  

Two days earlier, Evans attacked Foster for being one of 198 Democrats who voted against a House bill that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote.  

Evans alleged that Foster, “voted with far-left radicals in Congress to allow illegal immigrants to vote in our elections,” and “… needs to answer for this out-of-touch and dangerous extremism.” 

Democratic leadership hit back against that contention, with the White House issuing a statement that the GOP bill “would do nothing to safeguard our elections, but it would make it much harder for all eligible Americans to register to vote and increase the risk that eligible voters are purged from voter rolls.” 

For his part, Evans already knows what it’s like to lose to a heavily funded opponent in the 11th Congressional District; he came in second in the 2022 GOP, to Catalina Lauf, who outraised him 15-to-1.