Katie Stuart

Jay Keeven

Back in May, the 112th House race between incumbent Katie Stuart and Jay Keeven was big news, with Republicans promising to rally behind Keeven and take back the 112th from Democrats.

After Stuart’s 2022 victory margin fell to 8.4 percent (from 10.2 percent) Republicans came to believe they could make up the 3,216 vote margin. After no Republican ran in the March primary, it appeared Stuart would be unopposed. However, Keeven, the Troy city administrator and a 35-year law enforcement veteran, was slated by Madison County Republicans on April 15 to be on the general election ballot. In early June he filed his nominating petitions.

At the time, Republican Minority Leader Tony McCombie, R-89^th, opined that “A bunch of folks down there just got behind Jay Keeven, and it was awesome. We got a great candidate, and we’re gonna take the one-twelve (112th).”

However, in a 48-hour legislative blitzkrieg, Democrats introduced and passed and Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a law, prohibiting any candidate of a party that had not run a candidate in a primary to be on the general election ballot.

On June 10, the Edwardsville Democratic precinct captain filed an objection to Keeven’s candidacy with the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Houston alleged that Keeven should be disqualified due to his filing violating the newly enacted Section 8-17 of the Illinois election code, which states that “if there was no candidate for the nomination of the party in the primary, no candidate of that party for that office may be listed on the ballot at the general election.”

Republicans called the new law “the Katie Stuart Protection Act.” Madison County Republican Party Chairman Ray Wesley called it “yet another attempt at election interference by the Democratic Party to protect vulnerable candidates.”

Numerous Republican candidates affected by the law have sued, but Keeven is not among them, and so is not protected from any legal challenge to the ISBE.

Things are a lot quieter now in August, with fundraising on both sides nearly somnambulant. Meanwhile, as of Aug. 1, Houston’s objection was one of 20 that remained pending before the ISBE.

McCombie seemed more cautious in a recent interview with journalist Patrick Pfingsten, opining that folks in southern Illinois House districts would “start pulling Republican [ballots in a primary], and that’s when things are going to shift.” Asked about the 112th district race, McCombie called it “interesting.”

Whether that interest translates into financial support for Keeven remains as up in the air as the petition challenge with the ISBE. But if Republicans are serious about flipping the 112th District blue, they’re taking things rather slow.

Keeven, who ended June with less than $20,000 on hand, has held at least two fundraisers. Both he and Stuart have expended less than $4,000 each this spring. The difference is that Stuart started out July with nearly $500,000 in the bank.

The GOP has money available to help Keeven. If, that is, he remains on the ballot.

McCombie had $1.48 million on hand June 30, and added $82,000 in July. The HRO finished June with $92,825 and took in another $47,000 in July.

The chairman of the House Republican Majority campaign committee, Rep. Ryan Spain of Peoria, had $400,791 as of June 30, and received $17,000 in July. The HRM committee finished June with $80,048, while the House Republican Leadership committee had $72,125.

But that GOP cash represents just $200,000 more than Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch and Pritzker spent on just one 2022 race, Rep. Sharon Chung’s winning campaign for 91st House.

In a five-week period between August and September in 2022, Pritzker transferred a total of $6 million to Welch’s Democrats for the Illinois House. From there, gushers of cash poured into the campaigns of Chung and others.

That money followed $2 million Pritzker transferred to Democrats for the Illinois House the previous December.

Pritzker, who once wrote a $90 million check to his political campaign, appears primed to open the spigot again; in a 21-day period before the spring primary, Pritzker, who’s not on the ballot, spent $2.1 million on media buys for Democrats.