Philip Nagel

Like the Kenny Rogers song goes, “You got to know when to fold ‘em.”

In a campaign season in which Republicans are playing nickel-dime poker to the Democrats dollar ante and unlimited raises, there are reports that Illinois Senate leaders have given up on Philip Nagel’s candidacy for state Senate.

Patrick Pfingsten reported Friday afternoon in The Illinoize that “multiple sources” have told him Senate Republicans lead by Senate Republican Leader John Curran made the decision to withdraw last week. He says GOP officials declined to comment on the issue. Chronicle Media has not independently confirmed that.

If campaign finance numbers mean anything, it’s likely GOP leadership folded after Democrats dumped north of $2.5 million against Nagel in a matter of three weeks. Nagel was challenging incumbent state Sen. Patrick Joyce in the 40th District, the only race in which the GOP opposed a Democratic incumbent.

Nagel, of Braidwood, who ran unopposed in the March GOP primary, took in just $12,300 in the third quarter, on 24 individual contributions. However, he received nearly $470,000 from the Senate Republican Victory Fund. Another $208,000 was spent on his behalf by the Senate Republican Victory Fund and Illinois Republican Party.

That’s major money by GOP standards, but Democratic leadership, led by Senate President Don Harmon, responded with a flood of cash of their own. A slew of organized labor groups sent $464,150 to Joyce in the third quarter. Harmon’s Illinois Senate Democratic Caucus campaign fund spent $27,764 in in-kind contributions for campaign staff salaries.

Then, in October, the flood gates really opened up, as ISDC transferred a stunning $2.3 million in cash to Joyce in just more than three weeks, including $350,000 on Oct. 1, another $300,000 on Oct. 15, $550,000 on Oct. 17, $325,000 on Monday, and $775,000 on Wednesday.

In addition, ISDC paid $103,774 for media production. Governor JB Pritzker added $50,000 on top of $131,000 in individual contributions.

Patrick Pfingsten noted in his online report that the GOP faces a challenging campaign agenda two years from now, when they must defend at least five Senate seats, including two in leadership positions, including Senate Republican Leader John Curran,  R-26th, and former Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie,  R-26th.

McConchie had a scare in 2022 when an unknown challenger, Maria Peterson, nearly upset him, losing by just 385 votes, 49.8 percent to 50.2 percent. One of the two state representatives in his district is freshman Democrat Nabeela Syed, and the other, Republican Martin McLaughlin, has received minimal GOP support, and is being seriously challenged and heavily outspent by Peterson in the race for the 52nd House seat.

Other GOP Senate seats vulnerable in 2026 include Sen. Seth Lewis, R-24th; Sen. Don DeWitte, R-33rd; and Sen. Erica Harriss, R-56. DeWitt ran unopposed in 2022, and Harriss pulled off an upset in that same election.

The GOP, which is already on the short end of a 78-40 divide in the Illinois House, could lose several more House seats Nov. 5, in part due to a massive imbalance in funding between Democrats and Republicans.

One of the two GOP state representatives in Lewis’s Senate district, Amy Grant, is being hugely outspent in a rematch with 2022 challenger Jackie Williamson, and is at serious risk of losing her seat in November.

Pundit Pfingsten reports that the decision by Republican Leader Curran and top advisors has caused some consternation within GOP ranks, with some arguing that the party should have gone “all in: against the Democrats in the 40th Senate.”

Others, he said, felt the Republican Party had already spend too much money on a race with “a flawed candidate in Nagel.”

Curran chairs the Senate Republican Victory Fund, and his personal campaign fund provided $705,000 of the $1 million the Victory Fund received in transfers in the third quarter.

The Senate GOP will be facing a daunting challenge in 2026 as it attempts to take on a Democratic Party with massive fund-raising capacity.

As the election season enters its final days and while campaign fund balances are very fluid, it’s reasonable to estimate that between his two main campaign war chests Senate President Harmon controls, conservatively, $15 million.

The ISFC, which Harmon chairs, had $2,605,673 on hand Sept. 30, after taking in $2,674,750 in the third quarter, $2 million of it from Friends of Don Harmon for State Senate.

Since Oct. 1, ISDC has received an additional $155,000 plus $2 million from the group JB for Governor.

Friends of Don Harmon for State Senate is capable of taking in huge amounts of funding in a very short time. In the third quarter alone, the fund took in more than $4 million, including 158 individual contributions totaling $1,275,200, and transfers totaling $2,926,500, including many five-figure sums from organized labor.

Friends of Don Harmon finished September with $13,385,464 in the bank, and has taken in more than $2.2 million the first 25 days of October. In a single day, Oct. 18, it reported 66 contributions for more than $935,000.

That’s not including his two other campaign funds, Don Harmon for Township Committeeman, which has $509,423, and Don Harmon for State Central Committeeman, which has $413,598.